Forecasting to Support Company XYZ's Financial Planning in 2025 using the Moving Average, Single and Double Exponential Smoothing Methods

Saputra Ivan Aji; Bisri Hasan

doi:10.59934/jaiea.v5i2.2066

Authors

Saputra Ivan Aji UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur
Hasan Bisri UPN "Veteran" Jawa Timur

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59934/jaiea.v5i2.2066

Keywords:

Forecasting, Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, MAPE

Abstract

XYZ Company derives part of its revenue from training services. The primary reason for creating this study is the challenge of achieving its consistently increasing annual revenue target, necessitating an accurate forecasting strategy to support operational decision making and resource allocation in the program, evaluation, and collaboration departments. The chosen methodology involves a quantitative time-series analysis, including 2-month and 3-month Moving Averages (MA), as well as Single and Double Exponential Smoothing. The historical data analyzed covers revenue from January to November 2025. The results indicate that the 3-month Moving Average (MA) method has the best accuracy with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 32% (acceptable accuracy), resulting in a revenue forecast for December 2025 of Rp5,521,000,000. In comparison, the 2-month MA method produced a constant forecast value of Rp5,657,500,000 for the period December 2025 to February 2026, but with a lower level of accuracy (MAPE 82%). The accurate implementation of this forecasting method provides strategic recommendations for XYZ Company in developing more precise financial planning. Although this study does not employ Automated learning models and classic time-series analysis remain widely used for practical financial planning.

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